Canada Fiscal Outlook 2025 — Single‑Page Explainer
Compiled: November 2025 — Fit to single printable page (A4 portrait)
Concise summary of debt, rising interest payments, interplay with inflation and the CAD, and comparison to hard-asset hedges (gold & bitcoin). Charts below use illustrative series to show relationships and projected paths to 2029.
Notes: series are illustrative to show relationships (2018–2029). Interest is shown on left axis (CAD bn); CPI and CAD index and assets use separate right axes for readability.
Stylised yearly series (2018–2029)
Year
Interest (CAD bn)
CPI %
CAD idx
Gold (CAD/oz)
Bitcoin (CAD)
2018
21.7
2.3
100
1,600
9,500
2019
22.6
1.9
102
1,650
7,800
2020
25.1
0.7
98
2,100
18,500
2021
29.4
3.4
96
2,400
60,000
2022
36.2
6.8
94
3,100
80,000
2023
48.5
4.1
92
3,250
36,000
2024
53.8
3.4
95
3,900
49,000
2025
82.4
3.0
93
4,300
85,000
2026
88.0
3.1
90
4,600
95,000
2027
93.0
3.3
88
4,900
105,000
2028
97.0
3.5
87
5,200
115,000
2029
103.5
3.6
85
5,600
125,000
Interpretation: interest payments are rising with debt and rates; CPI remains influenced by multiple factors; gold and bitcoin are modelled rising in CAD under moderate risk premium scenarios.